Cycles/test/simple_strategy_comparison_2025.py

#!/usr/bin/env python3
"""
Simple Strategy Comparison for 2025 Data

This script runs both the original and incremental strategies on the same 2025 timeframe
and creates side-by-side comparison plots.
"""

import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import matplotlib.dates as mdates
import logging
from typing import Dict, List, Tuple
import os
import sys
from datetime import datetime
import json

# Add project root to path
sys.path.insert(0, os.path.abspath('..'))

from cycles.IncStrategies.metatrend_strategy import IncMetaTrendStrategy
from cycles.IncStrategies.inc_backtester import IncBacktester, BacktestConfig
from cycles.utils.storage import Storage

# Configure logging
logging.basicConfig(level=logging.INFO, format='%(asctime)s - %(levelname)s - %(message)s')
logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)


class SimpleStrategyComparison:
    """Simple comparison between original and incremental strategies for 2025 data."""
    
    def __init__(self, start_date: str = "2025-01-01", end_date: str = "2025-05-01"):
        """Initialize the comparison."""
        self.start_date = start_date
        self.end_date = end_date
        self.storage = Storage(logging=logger)
        
        # Results storage
        self.original_results = None
        self.incremental_results = None
        self.test_data = None
        
    def load_data(self) -> pd.DataFrame:
        """Load test data for the specified date range."""
        logger.info(f"Loading data from {self.start_date} to {self.end_date}")
        
        try:
            # Load data directly from CSV file
            data_file = "../data/btcusd_1-min_data.csv"
            logger.info(f"Loading data from: {data_file}")
            
            # Read CSV file
            df = pd.read_csv(data_file)
            
            # Convert timestamp column
            df['timestamp'] = pd.to_datetime(df['Timestamp'], unit='s')
            
            # Rename columns to match expected format
            df = df.rename(columns={
                'Open': 'open',
                'High': 'high', 
                'Low': 'low',
                'Close': 'close',
                'Volume': 'volume'
            })
            
            # Filter by date range
            start_dt = pd.to_datetime(self.start_date)
            end_dt = pd.to_datetime(self.end_date)
            
            df = df[(df['timestamp'] >= start_dt) & (df['timestamp'] < end_dt)]
            
            if df.empty:
                raise ValueError(f"No data found for the specified date range: {self.start_date} to {self.end_date}")
            
            # Keep only required columns
            df = df[['timestamp', 'open', 'high', 'low', 'close', 'volume']]
            
            self.test_data = df
            
            logger.info(f"Loaded {len(df)} data points")
            logger.info(f"Date range: {df['timestamp'].min()} to {df['timestamp'].max()}")
            logger.info(f"Price range: ${df['close'].min():.0f} - ${df['close'].max():.0f}")
            
            return df
            
        except Exception as e:
            logger.error(f"Failed to load test data: {e}")
            import traceback
            traceback.print_exc()
            raise
    
    def load_original_results(self) -> Dict:
        """Load original strategy results from existing CSV file."""
        logger.info("📂 Loading Original Strategy results from CSV...")
        
        try:
            # Load the original trades file
            original_file = "../results/trades_15min(15min)_ST3pct.csv"
            
            if not os.path.exists(original_file):
                logger.warning(f"Original trades file not found: {original_file}")
                return None
            
            df = pd.read_csv(original_file)
            df['entry_time'] = pd.to_datetime(df['entry_time'])
            df['exit_time'] = pd.to_datetime(df['exit_time'], errors='coerce')
            
            # Calculate performance metrics
            buy_signals = df[df['type'] == 'BUY']
            sell_signals = df[df['type'] != 'BUY']
            
            # Calculate final value using compounding logic
            initial_usd = 10000
            final_usd = initial_usd
            
            for _, trade in sell_signals.iterrows():
                profit_pct = trade['profit_pct']
                final_usd *= (1 + profit_pct)
            
            total_return = (final_usd - initial_usd) / initial_usd * 100
            
            # Convert to standardized format
            trades = []
            for _, row in df.iterrows():
                trades.append({
                    'timestamp': row['entry_time'],
                    'type': row['type'],
                    'price': row.get('entry_price', row.get('exit_price')),
                    'exit_time': row['exit_time'],
                    'exit_price': row.get('exit_price'),
                    'profit_pct': row.get('profit_pct', 0),
                    'source': 'original'
                })
            
            performance = {
                'strategy_name': 'Original Strategy',
                'initial_value': initial_usd,
                'final_value': final_usd,
                'total_return': total_return,
                'num_trades': len(sell_signals),
                'trades': trades
            }
            
            logger.info(f"✅ Original strategy loaded: {len(sell_signals)} trades, {total_return:.2f}% return")
            
            self.original_results = performance
            return performance
            
        except Exception as e:
            logger.error(f"❌ Error loading original strategy: {e}")
            import traceback
            traceback.print_exc()
            return None
    
    def run_incremental_strategy(self, initial_usd: float = 10000) -> Dict:
        """Run the incremental strategy using the backtester."""
        logger.info("🔄 Running Incremental Strategy...")
        
        try:
            # Create strategy instance
            strategy = IncMetaTrendStrategy("metatrend", weight=1.0, params={
                "timeframe": "1min",
                "enable_logging": False
            })
            
            # Save our data to a temporary CSV file for the backtester
            temp_data_file = "../data/temp_2025_data.csv"
            
            # Prepare data in the format expected by Storage class
            temp_df = self.test_data.copy()
            temp_df['Timestamp'] = temp_df['timestamp'].astype('int64') // 10**9  # Convert to Unix timestamp
            temp_df = temp_df.rename(columns={
                'open': 'Open',
                'high': 'High',
                'low': 'Low', 
                'close': 'Close',
                'volume': 'Volume'
            })
            temp_df = temp_df[['Timestamp', 'Open', 'High', 'Low', 'Close', 'Volume']]
            temp_df.to_csv(temp_data_file, index=False)
            
            # Create backtest configuration with correct parameters
            config = BacktestConfig(
                data_file="temp_2025_data.csv",
                start_date=self.start_date,
                end_date=self.end_date,
                initial_usd=initial_usd,
                stop_loss_pct=0.03,
                take_profit_pct=0.0
            )
            
            # Create backtester
            backtester = IncBacktester(config)
            
            # Run backtest
            results = backtester.run_single_strategy(strategy)
            
            # Clean up temporary file
            if os.path.exists(temp_data_file):
                os.remove(temp_data_file)
            
            # Extract results
            trades = results.get('trades', [])
            
            # Convert trades to standardized format
            standardized_trades = []
            for trade in trades:
                standardized_trades.append({
                    'timestamp': trade.entry_time,
                    'type': 'BUY',
                    'price': trade.entry_price,
                    'exit_time': trade.exit_time,
                    'exit_price': trade.exit_price,
                    'profit_pct': trade.profit_pct,
                    'source': 'incremental'
                })
                
                # Add sell signal
                if trade.exit_time:
                    standardized_trades.append({
                        'timestamp': trade.exit_time,
                        'type': 'SELL',
                        'price': trade.exit_price,
                        'exit_time': trade.exit_time,
                        'exit_price': trade.exit_price,
                        'profit_pct': trade.profit_pct,
                        'source': 'incremental'
                    })
            
            # Calculate performance metrics
            final_value = results.get('final_usd', initial_usd)
            total_return = (final_value - initial_usd) / initial_usd * 100
            
            performance = {
                'strategy_name': 'Incremental MetaTrend',
                'initial_value': initial_usd,
                'final_value': final_value,
                'total_return': total_return,
                'num_trades': results.get('n_trades', 0),
                'trades': standardized_trades
            }
            
            logger.info(f"✅ Incremental strategy completed: {results.get('n_trades', 0)} trades, {total_return:.2f}% return")
            
            self.incremental_results = performance
            return performance
            
        except Exception as e:
            logger.error(f"❌ Error running incremental strategy: {e}")
            import traceback
            traceback.print_exc()
            return None
    
    def create_side_by_side_comparison(self, save_path: str = "../results/strategy_comparison_2025_simple.png"):
        """Create side-by-side comparison plots."""
        logger.info("📊 Creating side-by-side comparison plots...")
        
        # Create figure with subplots
        fig, ((ax1, ax2), (ax3, ax4)) = plt.subplots(2, 2, figsize=(20, 16))
        
        # Plot 1: Original Strategy Signals
        self._plot_strategy_signals(ax1, self.original_results, "Original Strategy", 'blue')
        
        # Plot 2: Incremental Strategy Signals  
        self._plot_strategy_signals(ax2, self.incremental_results, "Incremental Strategy", 'red')
        
        # Plot 3: Performance Comparison
        self._plot_performance_comparison(ax3)
        
        # Plot 4: Trade Statistics
        self._plot_trade_statistics(ax4)
        
        # Overall title
        fig.suptitle(f'Strategy Comparison: {self.start_date} to {self.end_date}', 
                    fontsize=20, fontweight='bold', y=0.98)
        
        # Adjust layout and save
        plt.tight_layout()
        plt.savefig(save_path, dpi=300, bbox_inches='tight')
        plt.show()
        
        logger.info(f"📈 Comparison plot saved to: {save_path}")
    
    def _plot_strategy_signals(self, ax, results: Dict, title: str, color: str):
        """Plot price data with trading signals for a single strategy."""
        if not results:
            ax.text(0.5, 0.5, f"No data for {title}", ha='center', va='center', transform=ax.transAxes)
            return
        
        # Plot price data
        ax.plot(self.test_data['timestamp'], self.test_data['close'], 
               color='black', linewidth=1, alpha=0.7, label='BTC Price')
        
        # Plot trading signals
        trades = results['trades']
        buy_signals = [t for t in trades if t['type'] == 'BUY']
        sell_signals = [t for t in trades if t['type'] == 'SELL' or t['type'] != 'BUY']
        
        if buy_signals:
            buy_times = [t['timestamp'] for t in buy_signals]
            buy_prices = [t['price'] for t in buy_signals]
            ax.scatter(buy_times, buy_prices, color='green', marker='^', 
                      s=80, label=f'Buy ({len(buy_signals)})', zorder=5, alpha=0.8)
        
        if sell_signals:
            # Separate profitable and losing sells
            profitable_sells = [t for t in sell_signals if t.get('profit_pct', 0) > 0]
            losing_sells = [t for t in sell_signals if t.get('profit_pct', 0) <= 0]
            
            if profitable_sells:
                profit_times = [t['timestamp'] for t in profitable_sells]
                profit_prices = [t['price'] for t in profitable_sells]
                ax.scatter(profit_times, profit_prices, color='blue', marker='v', 
                          s=80, label=f'Profitable Sell ({len(profitable_sells)})', zorder=5, alpha=0.8)
            
            if losing_sells:
                loss_times = [t['timestamp'] for t in losing_sells]
                loss_prices = [t['price'] for t in losing_sells]
                ax.scatter(loss_times, loss_prices, color='red', marker='v', 
                          s=80, label=f'Loss Sell ({len(losing_sells)})', zorder=5, alpha=0.8)
        
        ax.set_title(title, fontsize=14, fontweight='bold')
        ax.set_ylabel('Price (USD)', fontsize=12)
        ax.legend(loc='upper left', fontsize=10)
        ax.grid(True, alpha=0.3)
        ax.yaxis.set_major_formatter(plt.FuncFormatter(lambda x, p: f'${x:,.0f}'))
        
        # Format x-axis
        ax.xaxis.set_major_locator(mdates.DayLocator(interval=7))
        ax.xaxis.set_major_formatter(mdates.DateFormatter('%m-%d'))
        plt.setp(ax.xaxis.get_majorticklabels(), rotation=45)
    
    def _plot_performance_comparison(self, ax):
        """Plot performance comparison bar chart."""
        if not self.original_results or not self.incremental_results:
            ax.text(0.5, 0.5, "Performance data not available", ha='center', va='center', 
                   transform=ax.transAxes, fontsize=14)
            return
        
        strategies = ['Original', 'Incremental']
        returns = [self.original_results['total_return'], self.incremental_results['total_return']]
        colors = ['blue', 'red']
        
        bars = ax.bar(strategies, returns, color=colors, alpha=0.7)
        
        # Add value labels on bars
        for bar, return_val in zip(bars, returns):
            height = bar.get_height()
            ax.text(bar.get_x() + bar.get_width()/2., height + (1 if height >= 0 else -3),
                   f'{return_val:.1f}%', ha='center', va='bottom' if height >= 0 else 'top',
                   fontweight='bold', fontsize=12)
        
        ax.set_title('Total Return Comparison', fontsize=14, fontweight='bold')
        ax.set_ylabel('Return (%)', fontsize=12)
        ax.grid(True, alpha=0.3, axis='y')
        ax.axhline(y=0, color='black', linestyle='-', alpha=0.5)
    
    def _plot_trade_statistics(self, ax):
        """Create trade statistics table."""
        ax.axis('off')
        
        if not self.original_results or not self.incremental_results:
            ax.text(0.5, 0.5, "Trade data not available", ha='center', va='center', 
                   transform=ax.transAxes, fontsize=14)
            return
        
        # Create comparison table
        orig = self.original_results
        incr = self.incremental_results
        
        comparison_text = f"""
STRATEGY COMPARISON SUMMARY
{'='*50}

{'Metric':<20} {'Original':<15} {'Incremental':<15} {'Difference':<15}
{'-'*65}
{'Initial Value':<20} ${orig['initial_value']:>10,.0f} ${incr['initial_value']:>12,.0f} ${incr['initial_value'] - orig['initial_value']:>12,.0f}
{'Final Value':<20} ${orig['final_value']:>10,.0f} ${incr['final_value']:>12,.0f} ${incr['final_value'] - orig['final_value']:>12,.0f}
{'Total Return':<20} {orig['total_return']:>10.1f}% {incr['total_return']:>12.1f}% {incr['total_return'] - orig['total_return']:>12.1f}%
{'Number of Trades':<20} {orig['num_trades']:>10} {incr['num_trades']:>12} {incr['num_trades'] - orig['num_trades']:>12}

TIMEFRAME: {self.start_date} to {self.end_date}
DATA POINTS: {len(self.test_data):,} minute bars
PRICE RANGE: ${self.test_data['close'].min():,.0f} - ${self.test_data['close'].max():,.0f}

Both strategies use MetaTrend logic with 3% stop loss.
Differences indicate implementation variations.
"""
        
        ax.text(0.05, 0.95, comparison_text, transform=ax.transAxes, fontsize=10, 
               verticalalignment='top', fontfamily='monospace',
               bbox=dict(boxstyle="round,pad=0.5", facecolor="lightgray", alpha=0.9))
    
    def save_results(self, output_dir: str = "../results"):
        """Save detailed results to files."""
        logger.info("💾 Saving detailed results...")
        
        os.makedirs(output_dir, exist_ok=True)
        
        # Save performance summary
        summary = {
            'timeframe': f"{self.start_date} to {self.end_date}",
            'data_points': len(self.test_data) if self.test_data is not None else 0,
            'original_strategy': self.original_results,
            'incremental_strategy': self.incremental_results,
            'comparison_timestamp': datetime.now().isoformat()
        }
        
        summary_file = f"{output_dir}/strategy_comparison_2025_simple.json"
        with open(summary_file, 'w') as f:
            json.dump(summary, f, indent=2, default=str)
        logger.info(f"Performance summary saved to: {summary_file}")
    
    def run_full_comparison(self, initial_usd: float = 10000):
        """Run the complete comparison workflow."""
        logger.info("🚀 Starting Simple Strategy Comparison for 2025")
        logger.info("=" * 60)
        
        try:
            # Load data
            self.load_data()
            
            # Load original results and run incremental strategy
            self.load_original_results()
            self.run_incremental_strategy(initial_usd)
            
            # Create comparison plots
            self.create_side_by_side_comparison()
            
            # Save results
            self.save_results()
            
            # Print summary
            if self.original_results and self.incremental_results:
                logger.info("\n📊 COMPARISON SUMMARY:")
                logger.info(f"Original Strategy:    ${self.original_results['final_value']:,.0f} ({self.original_results['total_return']:+.2f}%)")
                logger.info(f"Incremental Strategy: ${self.incremental_results['final_value']:,.0f} ({self.incremental_results['total_return']:+.2f}%)")
                logger.info(f"Difference:           ${self.incremental_results['final_value'] - self.original_results['final_value']:,.0f} ({self.incremental_results['total_return'] - self.original_results['total_return']:+.2f}%)")
            
            logger.info("✅ Simple comparison completed successfully!")
            
        except Exception as e:
            logger.error(f"❌ Error during comparison: {e}")
            import traceback
            traceback.print_exc()


def main():
    """Main function to run the strategy comparison."""
    # Create comparison instance
    comparison = SimpleStrategyComparison(
        start_date="2025-01-01",
        end_date="2025-05-01"
    )
    
    # Run full comparison
    comparison.run_full_comparison(initial_usd=10000)


if __name__ == "__main__":
    main()